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Nitrogen+Syngas 389 May-Jun 2024

31 May 2024

Price Trends

Price Trends

The ammonia market reverted to recent norms at the end of April, with prices more or less unchanged in the east, and several benchmarks west of Suez moving downward in line with May’s Tampa settlement. Following a trio of high-priced c.fr spot deals many wondered whether such business would be replicated in Asia, but the hype did not live up to the expectation, with the majority of tonnes continuing to move on a contract basis into the likes of South Korea and Taiwan, China. The $430/t c.fr concluded into China has been attributed to both supply uncertainty and an uptick in domestic demand, though several inland prices declined this week, rendering price direction difficult.

In Southeast Asia, it was much of the same story, with exports continuing to move out of Indonesia at a steady rate, though a degree of tightness could begin to kick in Malaysia, where Petronas will commence a 16-day turnaround at its 450,000 t/year Bintulu facility as of 4th May.

Further west, exports out of the Middle East may suffer further delays after Ma’aden announced that its one-month planned shutdown at its MWSPC II unit would now commence in mid-May, with additional rumours of output woes at Sabic AN, prompted by delays to loadings at Jubail, potentially casting a further shadow over the Eastern hemisphere market. In Turkey, news of a result in Igsas’ latest 8,000-10,000 t purchase tender is awaited, amid talk of sanctioned material offered between $390-430/t c.fr.

West of Suez, producers in Algeria continue to push for business in the low-$400s/t f.o.b., though potential buyers remain unwilling to bite for the time being. Import demand into NW Europe remains limited on the spot front, with more stable natural-gas prices continuing to reflect more desirable costs of production by comparison to import cargoes.

In urea markets, with few buyers showing interest, prices are still under pressure. There is little interest in Europe to buy again and producers in Egypt now seem to be faced with looking further afield to place May tonnes. A sale to Turkey was reported to net as low as $280/t f.o.b., but other players in the market think it may achieve $285/t.

Offers from the Middle East were seen at $280-285/t f.o.b., but when SIUCI tested the market for an early-June cargo out of Oman, the best number it could find was understood to have been $275/t. Indonesia continued selling following its 22 April tender and finally placed about 190,000 t at $305.69/t with Australia taking 90,000 t. A prilled tender closes 3 May to test buyer interest.

New Orleans had a quiet end to the month. Rain hampered business and weakness in the global market is not encouraging any unnecessary purchases. First-half May dipped to $295/st and full May saw $280/st f.o.b. NOLA trade. Brazil proved to be volatile and gains seen of late seem to have been swept away with trades as low as $290/t c.fr. Some May cargo may secure a higher price for non-sanctioned material but plentiful supply from Venezuela and Iran saw sales for the month at $290/t c.fr and buyers withdraw from offers of non-sanctioned at $310/t c.fr.

Table 1: Price indications

END OF MONTH SPOT PRICES

natural gas

ammonia

urea

diammonium phosphate

Latest in Outlook & Reviews

Price Trends

Sulphur markets have been on a tear over the past few months, driven by strong demand in Asia, with buyers primarily sourcing from the Middle East and Canada through late 2024 and into the early months of 2025. Steady buying from Indonesia and China, the two largest importers of sulphur, appears to have supported the market, in China’s case mainly for phosphate production as well as a variety of industrial processes, and in Indonesia’s case to feed the high pressure acid leach (HPAL) plants that are producing nickel for the battery and stainless steel industries. Prices saw a notable rally following the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations. Nevertheless, this momentum finally began to shift as April began ago as the pace of price increases in Asia started to slow. As the spring fertilizer application season in China draws to a close, domestic prices began to drop, reaching the equivalent of a delivered price of around $272/t c.fr. As well as the narrowing window for spring application of phosphates, the decline was also driven by weakening demand amid uncertainty over tariffs and export restrictions. In southern China, phosphate producers continue to purchase import cargoes. A major phosphate producer in southwest China has been reported as having bought mainstream material at a price of $303/t c.fr, according to local market sources. Total sulphur port inventories in China had declined by 22,000 tonnes to 1.86 million tonnes by 16 April 2025. The volume at Yangtze River ports increased to 825,000 tonnes, while the port inventory at Dafeng decreased to 400,000 tonnes.