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Fertilizer International 521 Jul-Aug 2024

31 July 2024

A meeting of curious minds

Guest editorial

A meeting of curious minds

Laura Cross, Director, Market Intelligence, International Fertilizer Association (IFA)

Laura Cross, Director, Market Intelligence, International Fertilizer Association (IFA)
PHOTO: IFA

“IFA’s Global Markets Conference – an in-depth event for anyone tracking the fertilizer market.”

The fertilizer market is full of contradictions and caveats. What applies to some markets is irrelevant to others, seasonality trends can be thrown off track by a single tender or government decision, and we remain at the often shaky intersection of food, energy and mining market fundamentals.

For the most part, the major fertilizer markets have returned to being driven by typical supply-demand factors in 2024. This can make it easy to gloss over just how much the events of the last four years have changed the structure of the fertilizer market, with many countries still bearing the scars of geopolitical tensions, sanctions, trade defence and high production costs, among other issues.

To be a fertilizer analyst is to always be on your toes, ready for the next potential disruption or unexpected market driver that may crop up (agriculture pun intended). The need to be prepared for changing market trends is what underpins IFA’s Global Markets Conference, an in-depth event catering to anyone tracking the fertilizer market and wanting to stay up to date on key developments, areas to watch, and new tools to help improve analysis.

This year’s event will be held on July 9-10 in London and offers a one-stop shop for everything you need to know about the fertilizer market. The programme features almost 30 expert speakers who will delve into global issues and drivers across the agriculture, energy and fertilizer markets.

The conference will open with a keynote session titled Making Sense of the World Around Us. This will set the scene for the conference with a summary of farmer insights prepared by McKinsey, highlighting the challenges and innovations in modern agriculture. The session will then move to examining the global economic landscape and a look at top global risks in 2024, ranging from conflicts and geopolitics, to polarisation of major economies, the fight for critical minerals and beyond.

The second session will focus on The Growing Challenge of Shipping Fertilizers, reviewing recent disruptions in global freight and their impact on the fertilizer industry. Experts will explore how these shipping issues are affecting availability and delivery times, and how fertilizers have been impacted compared to other commodities. The session will also include a long-term forecast of maritime trends to 2050, outlining future challenges and opportunities for the industry.

We have dedicated two further sessions to Agriculture and Energy Markets, with presentations on land-use change, crop supply and demand projections, and an IFA project working towards a global monitoring system for fertilizer use by crop and country. The energy session will feature the role of energy markets in global economic stability and a natural gas outlook, followed by a presentation on decarbonisation and the energy transition.

The fifth and sixth sessions will address the major commodity Fertilizer Markets, starting with nitrogen. Expert speakers will share perspectives on the ammonia, urea and nitrates markets, with the latter including an assessment of the role of nitrates in Europe in light of the recently introduced Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Kicking off the second day of the conference, the sixth session will begin with a country spotlight presentation on the Chinese fertilizer market, from recent supply and demand trends to policy developments and export restrictions. This will be followed by phosphate and potash market outlooks.

The conference will conclude with two sessions on Emerging Trends in the industry. The seventh session will discuss developments and opportunities in the specialty fertilizer market, trends in specialty phosphates and methodologies for estimating carbon emissions from shipping fertilizers in order to meet new reporting requirements.

The last session will explore The Role of AI and Data Automation in Market Analysis, featuring an overview of how AI is rapidly changing business decision making, and a panel discussion on use of artificial intelligence and data automation in market analysis. This session will cover how new tools are providing real-time insights and aiding long-term strategic decision-making, showcasing the transformative potential of these technologies in the industry.

Phew, a lot to be covered, but we’re excited to bring this conference back for another year and facilitate the meeting of curious minds in London!

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