Fertilizer International 525 Mar-Apr 2025
18 March 2025
Fertilizer Latino Americano 2025
CONFERENCE REPORT
Fertilizer Latino Americano 2025
More than 1,100 attendees from 500 companies and 56 countries gathered at the Windsor Oceanico Hotel, Rio de Janeiro, 26-29 January, for the 2025 Fertilizer Latino Americano (FLA) conference. We present selected highlights from this year’s four-day conference.
Record delegate numbers
CRU’s Humphrey Knight formally opened the event on Monday morning. Acting as conference chair, he welcomed the 1,100+ registered delegates to Rio and Fertilizer Latino Americano 2025.
He confirmed that delegate numbers had exceeded the previous record set when CRU hosted the event in Rio in 2023.
“FLA is the fertilizer sector’s curtain raiser event for the calendar year,” Knight said. “On behalf of everyone at CRU, I wish you a truly successful FLA 2025!”
Potash hungry Brazil
The conference opened with a panel discussion on global fertilizer markets between:
• Talita Arcaro, Canpotex’s Vice President Marketing, Latin America, Europe, and Africa Motti Levin, Haifa Group’s CEO
• Mario Suffriti, Commercial Director, Profertil
• Gustavo Daudt, Ma’aden’s Managing Director, Brazil
“Potash global shipments in 2024 are estimated at 72 million tonnes. And as a result of this increased demand we recorded price increases in the last month,” said Talita Arcaro.
“We were able to reach new record [potash shipment] levels last year, with virtually all the important markets returning to help demand reach the levels seen in 2021,” Arcaro said. “This was stimulated by product availability and good affordability – as potash today is underrated compared to nitrogen and phosphate.”
“We start 2025 with strong demand in practically all regions of the globe,” she said. “It also important to note that potash consumption grows the most, among all the nutrients, simply because it has been underapplied and therefore has the greatest potential for growth in the future.”
When it comes to potash, Arcaro singled out Brazil for having more balanced fertilization compared to many other countries.
“Brazilian soils are very deficient in potash and application rates are quite high, even compared to our neighbours here in Latin America,” she said. “The crops that we plant here, soybean and second crop corn, require a lot of potash.”
Precision agriculture – a model for the future?
Haifa Group together with Netafim virtually created ‘fertigation’, according to Motti Levin, a method that combines water-efficient drip irrigation with the precise delivery of crop nutrients.
Israeli is a small, water scarce country the size of the US state of New Jersey with 60% of its land classed as desert. Yet its agriculture can act as a pathfinder for other crop-producing countries and help them overcome the challenges they face, suggested Levin.
“More than 90% of Israeli cultivated land is irrigated,” he said. “We can become a pilot for much greater nations on how to adapt to precision agriculture and increase yields by minimising resources.”
Summing up, Levin said: “The future is sustainable and regenerative farming. And when I’m talking about regenerative, we’re talking about soil restoration, the capture of carbon and embedding it in soil, crop diversity, water conservation, and many other actions which can go hand-in-hand with agriculture and fertilizer production.”
Boots on the ground in Brazil
In recent years, Ma’aden has invested heavily in production capacity to become the second largest phosphate fertilizer exporter in the world. It’s a trend that’s set to continue.
“Our current P2O5 capacity is around three million tonnes and we are actually on track to increase it by one million tonnes in the next few years,” said Gustavo Daudt. “We are also the largest ammonia exporter with a dedicated fleet of eight vessels.”
The company is expanding its global presence and ability to distribute fertilizers by establishing offices in India, Africa and now Brazil.
“We are expanding our offices around the globe – most recently our office in Brazil – with what we call, in a gentle way, boots on the ground,” said Daudt. “The purpose of our offices is to get more information, to hear more about our customers.”
While Brazil’s monoammonium phosphate (MAP) imports fell year-on-year in 2024, according to Daudt, the country’s total phosphate demand was unchanged.
“Overall, P2O5 imports in Brazil were pretty much stable compared to the previous year, even though we had a reshuffle between products,” he said. “We had less MAP but more imports of SSP and other products.”
The Latin American region remains a key export destination for the giant Saudi phosphate producer.
“Despite the challenges that 2025 brings, Brazil and Latin America are resilient and will keep growing, will keep expanding,” summed up Daudt. “Looking back, you see Ma’aden exporting 20% of its production to Brazil during the last years – we’ve been keeping a constant flow of products to our customers, making ourselves a reliable supplier.”
Fertilizers out of sync
In a two-hander, CRU’s Humphrey Knight and Charlie Stephen took a deep dive into phosphate, nitrogen and potash fertilizer price expectations. They provided delegates with four key takeaways:
• Firstly, US tariffs are expected to impact on US fertilizer demand in the second half of the year – although their introduction remains a hypothetical scenario.
• Urea’s first quarter price rally, meanwhile, won’t last.
• While the current out of sync P & K price disparity will persist.
• Finally, novel energy transition uses – namely the LFP battery market – face early challenges outside of China.
“The more tangible takeaways are that fertilizer affordability is not so favourable at the start of 2025 as it was a year ago, with energy prices also in a similar situation,” Knight said. “On the nitrogen side, the urea price rally will not last, particularly towards the end of this year when Chinese exports finally resume, while phosphate and potash prices remain extremely far apart – with only very modest changes to supply outlooks on the horizon.”
Businesses, not charities
The day’s second panel discussion covered the outlook for green ammonia projects and new production technologies with:
• Mauricio Medici, Stamicarbon’s Licensing Manager/Area Sales Manager
• Terje Bakken, Atome Energy’s Head of Ammonia and Fertilizers
• João Braz, Chief Commercial Officer at Porto Do Acu
• Knut Karlsen, Co-Founder and President South America, Atlas Agro.
Terje and Knut, the two speakers from green ammonia projects, were keen to emphasise that their business models did not depend on subsidies to be competitive.
Knut Karlsen addressed the issue of higher costs and green premia head on:
“There is no doubt that producing green hydrogen and their derivatives, green ammonia and green nitrogen fertilizers, is more expensive. Yes, we know that. So, the question is, how do you then become competitive?
“Well, the way we do it is to position our plants in import markets where there is a high logistical cost for the ‘grey’ conventional alternative. That’s why Uberaba in Brazil was primarily chosen as Atlas Agro’s project site, because the cost of importing fertilisers can reach up to almost 50% of the total product cost.
“Yes, we have high costs through green hydrogen electrolysis. But, by being next to farmers, we avoid the logistical costs and, in that way, we can compete directly with a grey product.”
The cost increase for food consumers from the switch to green fertilizers – for foods such as processed potatoes and bread – should in any case be limited, suggested Terje Bakken:
“There have been interesting analyses showing that it can be done with a mere 1% additional cost. We are not talking about dramatic changes to make a very concrete impact – so I think, in the end, the retailers, the food majors and the consumers will want to see that change.
“Will there be a higher price for carbon-free foods – yes, there will be. How much of a higher price?
“Well, I think we can do a lot to offset extra costs by focusing on fertilizers with better nutrient use efficiency like calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN). In that way, we’ll also make the consumers and the retailers, the packaged goods companies, desperate to make changes – because they need to show that they are part of the future.”
Summing up, Knut Karlsen said cost was not really the issue anyway:
“The elephant in the room is not really the cost. It’s can you finance it?
“We can be cost competitive, we will be cost competitive. In addition, we’ll have green premiums.
“There is actually a lot of opportunities to get green premiums. We’re having very good negotiations with financiers, with packaged goods companies, to pay a green premium, because this is not about planting trees, it’s about direct cuts to CO2 emissions in their value chain.
“But that is not enough. You need to de-risk cashflow in the long term – and the main way of doing that is through green fertilizer off-takes.”
Interested in learning more? Atlas Agro, Atome, Casale and Stamicarbon all spoke to Fertilizer International magazine about their green ammonia ambitions in our January/ February magazine (Fertilizer International 524, p31).
A modern twist on an ancient innovation
Latin America’s specialty fertilizer market was the theme of Vatren Jurin, DunhamTrimmer’s Chief Technology Officer.
DunhamTrimmer class these products as value-added fertilizers (VAFs), with foundational, functional and enhancing components, as he recently explained in a companion article in the conference edition of Fertilizer International magazine (Fertilizer International 524, p28).
VAFs are nothing new, suggested Jurin. Ancient civilisations used seaweed in their agriculture, for example.
“So, it’s a way that you really bridge ancient wisdom with modern science,” he said. “The use of biostimulants really honours agricultural heritage – learning how to use waste is nothing new, you know.”
VAFs represent a $19.3 billion market globally, according to a new DunhamTrimmer report published this month, a sizeable market that’s growing at between 6-7% annually. Regionally, Latin America is the VAF market’s jewel in the crown, being valued at $3.2 billion with applications to 130 million hectares of cropland.
“The success of VAFs in Latin America demonstrates that innovation doesn’t announce itself with a fanfare,” said Jurin.
The value-added fertilizer segment is sizeable too, now representing almost one tenth of the total crop nutrient market, according to DunhamTrimmer.
“It’s about 8.5 to 9 percent of the global fertiliser market,” summed up Jurin. “Compared to the 200 plus billion dollar fertilizer market, we’re under 20 billion, you know, but it’s growing and a very interesting and profitable area.”
US farmers face inflation risk
Jason Newton, Nutrien’s Chief Economist, in his presentation on fertilizer demand drivers, highlighted five themes – with these encompassing geopolitical risks and trade disruptions, the tight global grain supply, Chinese export restrictions, the global potash supply/demand balance, and Brazilian ag trends.
“I had the opportunity to speak at this conference last year. As we start 2025, all of those geopolitical risks that existed in 2024 are still in place – and there’s actually some additional risks and uncertainties,” Newton said.
He included ongoing global conflicts, namely those between Russia and Ukraine and others within the Middle East, as part of the current mix of trade and armed disputes. “Overall, all trade disputes create uncertainty and the potential for supply disruption and price collapse,” Newton said
US protectionism, particularly the prospect of tariffs on US imports, promises to be a source of uncertainty in the coming months and years, suggested Newton.
“That likely leads to inflation for US farmers across their inputs – fertilizer and crop protection will be two that are impacted. At the same time, because of the importance of US agricultural exports, any type of retaliation from other countries is likely to target agriculture – so farms could get impacted on the crop side as well,” he said.
Nutrien’s estimate for Brazilian fertilizer imports in 2024 is 38 million tonnes, up by two million tonnes on the previous year The country has become an ever bigger player in global fertilizer consumption due to rising demand from domestic soybean and corn farming. Combined, the cultivation of these two crops has been expanding at around 1.5 million hectares annually, rising from 45.9 million hectares in 2013 to 69.6 million hectares in 2024.
“To wrap up, I’d say we’ve entered 2025 in relatively tight agriculture and fertilizer market conditions and a really positive outlook, as we look towards demand in the first half of this year, with both Brazilian planting and northern hemisphere grain planting. But with potential for volatility driven by supply disruptions and potential geopolitical uncertainties,” Newton concluded.
Region of pressure, region of promise
Alzbeta Klein, the CEO of the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), focused on AgTech start-ups as engines of industry innovation in her keynote presentation. “There is a need for innovative plant nutrition, a need that’s never been more than today,” she said.
More efficient fertilizer use is vital, Klein said, given that the fertilizer industry underpins global food security. Yet around half of the nitrogen applied as fertilizer globally is lost to the environment, she noted, including as greenhouse gas emissions.
“Latin America is a region of promise, a region of pressure,” Klein said, with just five countries providing 90% of global calories. “In Brazil, we stand in one of those countries,” Alzbeta said.
On agricultural technology, Brazil is blazing the trail.
“There are 1,500 AgTech start-ups in Brazil – it’s dynamic, it’s growing,” Klein said. “Start-ups in the region are growing at 15.8% annually.”
Latin America has an unparalleled opportunity to lead on sustainable agriculture due to it’s thriving start-up ecosystem, in Klein’s view.
“How do we realise the potential we’re seeing in Latin America? Firstly, public-private partnerships. Secondly, incubation of new technologies. The next one is R&D,” summed up Klein.
US tariffs good news for Brazil?
Daejin Lee, Global Head of Research, Fertistream Freight, provided a world freight outlook. Dry bulk shipments grew by 3.9% year-on-year in 2024, according to Fertistream.
Looking ahead at Brazil’s fertilizer needs, Lee said: “In 2025, the seasonality of Brazilian bulk fertilizer imports should see freight rates recover after early corrections.”
Brazil’s grain exports should also be favoured in the second quarter of 2025, if the US acts as promised and introduces tariffs on Chinese goods. “That’s good news for Brazilian grain and Brazilian fertilizer [imports],” Lee said.
In general, his view is that: “Whatever you look at [in the shipping market], look at the incentives and motivation.” This philosophy applies to market trends as diverse as Red Sea re-routing and use of green ammonia as a shipping fuel.
“The Red Sea route should come back to normal by the end of the year,” said Lee, “as the Trump administration has the incentive to bring it back.”
Gulf of Aden shipments were down 74% in December 2024 versus December 2023, although transits are now likely to recover, given the Gaza ceasefire, Lee suggested.
Nutrient nightmares
Long time FLA speaker, Dr Luis Prochnow, Director General of the NPCT, gave a typically forthright and insightful presentation on FLA’s last morning:
“It’s a little bit of a polemic. After 50 years in the industry, I will tell you what keeps me awake about crop nutrition.”
Dr Prochnow is being denied sleep by a combination of misleading information, pseudoscience, a lack of vision, questionable product options, and inefficient soil and fertilizer management.
“Misleading information – I’m very worried by this. We have lots of information in our environment. But the truth is not easy to find,” he said.
Pseudoscience was particularly problematic, according to Dr Prochnow, because it cherry picks. “Science considers all information, pseudoscience selectively presents information,” he said.
More visionary ag industry leadership was also necessary, Dr Prochnow suggested.
“Certain countries do not understand that their capability and vocation is for efficient agriculture. This includes the transformation of agricultural products,” he said.
Dr Prochnow called for more respect for the evidence too.
“No matter what, plants should have the final say. Environmental and economic evidence holds the key,” he said.
Summing up, Dr Prochnow said: “[In future], we will need evidence-based agriculture and knowledgeable and well-informed professionals. We will need robust evidence that comes from sound science.”
That was his personal prescription for a much better night’s sleep!
RIO CONFERENCE DIARY
Simon Inglethorpe, editor of Fertilizer International, gives his personal impressions of this year’s Fertilizer Latino Americano conference.
Most successful year ever
Firstly, 2025 has demonstrated to me that FLA is not just front running, it is the crop nutrient event for the Latin American region. The surge in delegate numbers we’ve seen this year show that – and have cemented FLA’s status as a must-attend conference.
Bellwether region that sets the tone
Secondly, as we heard from Jason Newton, Nutrien’s chief economist, Brazil is becoming ever more important as a fertilizer demand market, due to the seemingly inexorable annual rise in soybean and corn cultivation.
This means, now more than ever, that the country and region act as a bellwether for the wider health of the global fertilizer market. Consequently, FLA is uniquely positioned and timed to offer up key insights and intelligence on this pathfinder demand centre.
Essentially, the conference acts as an insightful scene-setter at the very start of the year. Its popularity reflects that in my view.
Leadership on ag innovation
Thirdly, the region is now taking on a leadership role when it comes to both innovation and sustainability. Alzbeta Klein, IFA’s CEO, praised Brazil for its remarkable cluster of 1,500 AgTech start-ups for example. While Vatren Jurin, partner at DunhamTrimmer, highlighted Latin America’s quiet revolution in value-added fertilizers and its role as a biostimulants trailblazer.
Overall, if you want to understand how the fertilizer industry will adapt to the challenges it faces – on ag productivity, extreme weather, decarbonisation – then Latin America is a very good place to start.
On behalf of my hardworking CRU colleagues, I would like to thank all our delegates, exhibitors and sponsors for contributing to the success of this year’s conference.
