Tag: Demand

Canadian Press reports in December have highlighted concerns that the new tighter IMO rules on sulphur content of marine fuels, which came into force on January 1st, could lead to reduced demand for oil sands bitumen and syncrude. Canadian oil output has been steadily increasing over the past two decades, mainly due to expanded bitumen recovery, which now accounts for 50% of Canada’s 4.6 million bbl/d of oil production. However, the discount for Western Canadian Select bitumen blend crude prices versus North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate could almost double to $30/bbl in January, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie, averaging US$23-24/bbl for most of 2020, as US and other refiners use less heavy, sour oil and switch to lower sulphur feeds to try and optimise low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) production. However, reduced output from Canada’s competitors Mexico and Venezuela is currently helping to mitigate this. Oil sands producers with refineries or upgraders are expected to benefit as the new standards will increase demand for refined low-sulphur fuels. For example, Husky Energy has expanded its Lloydminster Upgrader to produce an extra 4,000 bbl/d of diesel, and reconfigured its Lima refinery in Ohio to use more heavy oil.

A New Year is typically a time for taking stock, for looking back at the year just gone, and thinking about the year to come. This year of course marks a bigger transition, from the 2010s to the 2020s. The past decade has been a volatile one, existing under the shadow of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, from which the world was still just emerging in 2010. Over the past decade, ‘quantitative easing’ has helped prevent deflation and driven a decade long stock market rally, but also kept both public and private debt levels high, as interest rates stay low. Weaning the global economy off QE has proved to be far more difficult than many anticipated.

The refining industry, the source of half of the world’s elemental sulphur, continues to face major structural changes from changing feedstock and product slates and increasing regulatory burdens.

After a poor 2019, when global demand contracted by nearly 2.5%, phosphate markets are expected to rebound in 2020. Saudi Arabia and Morocco dominate new capacity additions while India and Brazil continue to be the key importers. US and Chinese production is in slow decline, meanwhile.

Floor prices in nitrogen markets are set by marginal producers high on the cost curve, usually using higher cost feedstocks. Recently, lower coal prices in China and the cost of imported LNG have begun to change the dynamic between producers on the margins.

‘Green’ methanol means many things to different people. It encompasses low carbon emissions methanol manufacture at scale, recovery of material through waste gasification and conversion to methanol and power to liquid (e-fuel) methanol via electrochemistry and sometimes a combination of all of the above. Each route has a place in reducing the overall carbon footprint of production and subsequent use of methanol, driven by both governmental incentives or societal demand. In this article Andrew Fenwick of Johnson Matthey reviews the various routes to manufacture.

Brazil is the main centre for new nitrogen demand in Latin America, but in spite of major oil and gas discoveries in the 2000s, has failed to develop a downstream nitrogen fertilizer industry.

Andy Hemphill , senior editor for potash at ICIS Fertilizers, takes a deep dive into the potash market. Potash producers are praying that tight capacity control and resurgent demand will curb the current bearish price trend.

We look ahead at fertilizer industry prospects for the next 12 months, including supply and demand growth, and explore the key agricultural, macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers likely to shape the market during 2020.

James Byrd of JESA Technologies (Worley, formerly Jacobs), Florida, looks at upcoming innovations in di-hydrate (DH) phosphoric acid plants for the 2020s.