Tag: Demand

While underlying supply and demand criteria continue to set floors and ceilings for nitrogen and other syngas derived products, political events as ever have the potential to derail all calculations. While much attention has focused on the US election, the escalating crisis in the Middle East continues to have the potential to threaten fertilizer trade in multiple ways. As this issue was going to press, Israel had just launched its retaliatory missile strike on Tehran, on October 26th, the latest in a series of tit for tat attacks between Israel and Iran, in particular an Iranian missile strike on Israel on October 1st. The Iranian government appeared to be downplaying the results as “limited”, but said that it considered itself “entitled and obligated to defend itself”.

Short term supply constraints are dominating acid markets at present, but increasing smelter production across Asia may lead to oversupply in the longer term.

An ammonium nitrate industry geared around producing explosives for the mining sector is now being joined by a major urea project and a number of renewables-based products for export of green ammonia.

OCP Group has launched what it calls the Mzinda-Meskala Strategic Programme, aimed at significantly expanding fertilizer production in the country. Initially announced in December 2022, the program is set to enhance production capacity in two key regions: the Mzinda-Safi Corridor and the Meskala-Essaouira Corridor. This initiative is part of OCP’s broader strategy to meet growing global demand for fertilizers while committing to long-term sustainability goals, including achieving carbon neutrality by 2040.

With a large number of green ammonia projects under development, financing remains the greatest hurdle to getting ventures off the ground.

Emerging evidence suggests that by-products used as fertilizers, particularly ammonium sulphate, may emerge as winners from the EU’s implementation of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). In this article, Franck Boher of Upgraid investigates whether by-products can help reshape sustainable fertilizer production in Europe.

We look at the future of polyhalite mining and its use as a fertilizer following Anglo American’s announcement that investment in its UK-Based Woodsmith mine will fall to zero in 2026 under current plans.

The dry bulk market is forecast to cool, after a year of high freight rates driven by demand shocks. Should ships return to the Red Sea during 2025, then the market will weaken even more. This development, explains BIMCO shipping analyst Filipe Gouveia, would particularly affect the supramax and handysize vessels typically used in fertilizer shipping.

The prospect of a drastic expansion in potassium sulphate production has been linked to a plethora of projects in Australia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. These have sought to take advantage of market tightness and high price premiums. Yet investor interest in supposedly promising projects has waned over the last few years. In this insight article, CRU’s Alexander Chreky explains the reasons behind the high project failure rate, as well as highlighting some limited successes.

The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) recently published its annual medium-term outlook for the fertilizer market. This followed presentations by Laura Cross and Armelle Gruère of IFA’s Market Intelligence Service at the Association’s Annual Conference in Singapore in late May.