Is a Black Sea deal back on the agenda?
While the world’s attention has been grabbed by the terrible situation in the Middle East, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to drag on. Of particular concern in recent months has been the deal to allow export of grain from Odessa, which lapsed in July 2023, a year after it first began. The deal had allowed 33 million tonnes of grain to be exported, around 60% of it to the developing world. However, Russia had always insisted that continuing with the deal was contingent on (a) a resumption of Russian ammonia exports via Odessa and (b) removing SWIFT payment restrictions on the Rosselkhozbank agricultural bank, allowing easier export of fertilizer. Fertilizers remain exempt from sanctions on Russia, but the difficulty in securing payment, the closure of the ammonia pipeline to the Black Sea, and high maritime insurance rates for traversing the Black Sea have made exports much more difficult. And although Ukraine continues to export grain, now mostly via rail to ports like Ismail and Reni on the River Danube, Russia has done its best to disrupt this, striking ports and warehouses and laying mines in shipping lanes. Around 300,000 tonnes of grain has been destroyed, according to Ukraine, as well as up to three ships hit by mines and one possibly by a missile on November 8th. Furthermore, bottlenecks in rail transit and port capacity and the difficulty in getting ships to the ports mean that actual volumes of grain exported are considerably reduced, with only around 700,000 tonnes exported via the Danube Ports from August to the start of November.
