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Tag: IFA

Turning points

On February 27th, in a speech to the Bundestag, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz described the events then unfolding as a “zeitenwende” – a historical turning point. He was speaking of German foreign and security policy, but it seems likely that Russia’s February 24th invasion of Ukraine may end up marking a break with the past in many different ways. Last issue’s Editorial was written when Russia’s ‘special military operation’ was still only a few days old, and the situation was still very fluid. Two months on, and for all of the uncertainties remaining, some glimpses of the way that things are changing are becoming clearer.

War returns to Europe

Late February saw the diplomatic crisis between Russia and Ukraine abruptly devolve into all-out war, on a scale not seen in Europe since the collapse of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s – some would argue not since the end of the Second World War. At time of writing, the conflict is still barely two weeks old, but has already produced an unfolding humanitarian catastrophe, and a refugee crisis of massive proportions. But over the medium and longer term, together with the international sanctions that have swiftly followed, it also has the power to deliver an economic shock to commodities markets in particular and the world economy in general that may be as bad if not worse than the crash of 2008-9.