Prices remain at low levels, in part because of oversupply due to new plant start-ups. However, there has also been a contraction in demand, especially for technical ammonia – industrial markets for ammonia in China and East Asia have been badly affected.
Haldor Topsoe has launched a new methanol synthesis catalyst, MK-181 PRIME, based on new technology developed via close study of copper-zinc interactions on the catalyst surface.
The impact of coronavirus on both supply and demand continues to provide considerable uncertainty to the market. Industrial demand seems to have been worst affected, and fertilizer related demand has largely kept up, although shutdowns in India’s ammonium phosphate sector have also affected demand. Spring is traditionally the strongest time for fertilizer demand, and this has helped support prices at least in the short term.
Methanex has said that, in light of the uncertainty in the global economy from the Covid-19 pandemic, it will defer approximately $500 million of previously announced capital spending on its $1.4 billion Geismar 3 methanol project for up to 18 months. Geismar 3, which is intended to eventually produce 1.8 million t/a of methanol, will be placed on temporary “care and maintenance” for up to 18 months, enabling the company to complete the project when market conditions improve. Methanex says it will spend $100 million in Q1 2020 and a further $200 million from April 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021 on the project, the majority of which is spending that occurred or was committed during Q1 2020. This is approximately $500 million lower than the $800 million that was expected to be spent over that same period. Construction activity and procurement of non-critical equipment and bulk materials will be suspended until market conditions allow the Geismar 3 project to restart.
Olefins production from methanol, particularly in China, has come to dominate the methanol market over the past few years. However, environmental and market concerns complicate the outlook there.
The devastating effects of the Covid-19 pandemic continue to be felt around the world. At time of writing, nearly 4 million cases have been recorded, and at least a quarter of a million people have died, with the suspicion of many more, either from accidental or deliberate undercounting. Figures for excess deaths above a normal seasonal baseline show that places such as Turkey, Ecuador and Indonesia have probably been far worse affected than the official statistics show. There are nevertheless finally hopeful signs that Europe, so far the worst affected region, is beginning to follow the pattern of East Asia and Oceania and that cases are falling. The infection also seems to have peaked in North America, though in the US there is a long tail of infections. Elsewhere, cases are still rising in countries such as Brazil and Mexico.
The UK’s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy has awarded £28 million ($36 million) of government funding to five demonstration projects for low carbon hydrogen production, as part of a larger stimulus package to cut industrial carbon emissions. The projects targeted for funding include:
The Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GGFR) is a World Bank sponsored programme to end wasteful and CO2 - intensive flaring of natural gas from oil production and stranded shale wells, and has been looking to small-scale methanol and GTL projects as a way of utilising this gas for productive ends.
The impact of coronavirus on both supply and demand continues to provide considerable uncertainty to the market. With much of Hubei province on lockdown, and a corresponding reduction in ammonia demand for DAP production, Chinese imports appear to be down, pushing more ammonia onto the international market and creating generally bearish sentiment.
At the time of writing this editorial, the World Economic Forum was having its usual annual meeting in the Swiss resort of Davos. Prior to this year’s meeting, as usual the WEF had produced its annual Global Risks Report to serve as a talking point for the meeting. While some of the risks were as usual political and economic, from proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the “retreat from multilateralism” to growing inequalities of wealth in the developed world and “domestic political polarisation”, for the first time in the organisation’s history, the top five global risks in the report ranked by likeliness – which looks at potential global pitfalls over the next 10 years – were environmental. Perhaps with the pictures of Australia’s bush fire season fresh in their minds, the 750 experts ranked extreme weather events as the most likely, but climate change, biodiversity loss and sustainability in agriculture all ranked highly.