Tag: Prices

Sulphur prices are expected to recover from declines in May and June and continue climbing over the coming months, though good availability will limit upside.

Sulphur prices in China are expected to recover with downstream demand anticipated to surge in the second half of the year and good affordability to support raw materials purchasing. Chinese nitrogen, phosphate, and potash prices have surged, driven by heightened demand for the summer corn application season. In particular, average 11-44 MAP prices jumped 16% from $390/t ex-works to $463/t in Hubei province. However, sulphur prices have taken a while to follow the trend on phosphate prices. Port prices have fluctuated in the range of $126-130/t c.fr since late March, and import prices fell from a high of $112/t c.fr to $100/t c.fr, capped by high port inventory and sufficient supply. Port inventories in China remain around 2.8 million tonnes, well above the 2022 average of 1.4 million tonnes and the 2023 average of 2.07 million tonnes. These elevated stock levels limited the upside for prices in China and provided buyers with options. At the start of July, Sinopec’s Puguang, the largest sulphur producer in China, increased its sulphur sales prices at Wanzhou port up $4/t RMB980/t, while its factory price at Dazhou was up RMB20/t at RMB950/t ex-works. These prices are considerably down from RMB1,600/t in December 2022 and RMB 2,945/t from mid-June 2022 and are the lowest since July 2023, but are still up from a low of RMB605-655/t at the end of August 2020.

Ammonia markets were quiet in June, though both CF Industries and Grupa Azoty were reported to be looking for July tonnes and the enquiry will test how tight the market is going forward. Algeria has traded in the $400-405/t f.o.b. range, suggesting c.fr values in Europe might be slightly higher at $450-460/t c.fr. Supply from Algeria has been and continues to be somewhat restricted because of constraints caused by the hot weather. Gas supply however is easing in Egypt and further ammonia exports should emerge shortly.

Prices in the Eastern Hemisphere, whilst still flat-to-firm, do not appear as supported as they have been over the past month, whilst indexes. There are still no signs of softening in the Far East although demand remains underwhelming and supply improving. While production in Indonesia is said to be back up and running, traders do not expect any spot cargo to emerge in July other than possibly some small part cargoes. August could see spot offers.

Market as of 20th June 2024. Urea: Prices remain stable while the market awaits clear price direction on whether to hold current f.o.b. levels or to push higher.

Urea: Prices continued their global decline in mid-April, including at New Orleans. The notable exception was Brazil where prices firmed due to buyer interest in the market for May and beyond.

Sulphur benchmarks firmed around the globe in April. Although availability remains ample, downstream production is expected to rise in the weeks ahead and further upside for prices is expected, at least in the short term. Prices increased the Middle East, Indonesia, India, Brazil, and the Mediterranean. The Middle East spot price was assessed up an average $3/t at $83-88/t f.o.b. The previous low end of the range was no longer considered achievable. The price has climbed 27% since mid-February this year. The benchmark is down 53% from early December 2022, but had climbed 47% from the end of July 2023 to its mid-October average of $110/t f.o.b. before declines set in once again. Chinese buyers returned to the international spot market in late April following weeks of inactivity, lifting c.fr prices.

Downstream phosphate production is expected to climb, with further sulphur price recovery expected. Overall, global demand remains lacklustre as downstream demand has yet to increase substantially in key markets and sulphur availability from most origins is ample.

The ammonia market reverted to recent norms at the end of April, with prices more or less unchanged in the east, and several benchmarks west of Suez moving downward in line with May’s Tampa settlement. Following a trio of high-priced c.fr spot deals many wondered whether such business would be replicated in Asia, but the hype did not live up to the expectation, with the majority of tonnes continuing to move on a contract basis into the likes of South Korea and Taiwan, China. The $430/t c.fr concluded into China has been attributed to both supply uncertainty and an uptick in domestic demand, though several inland prices declined this week, rendering price direction difficult.

Although it has been a major exporter of urea, increasing Chinese government restrictions have restricted the seasonal window for exports.