Spot ammonia prices made steep losses in west of Suez regions following the $200/t drop in the Tampa May contract price in late April, as supply and demand start to rebalance two months after the removal of Black Sea ammonia exports from the market. Yara has settled the Tampa contract price for May with Mosaic at $1,425/t c.fr, a $200/t drop from April.
Late February saw the diplomatic crisis between Russia and Ukraine abruptly devolve into all-out war, on a scale not seen in Europe since the collapse of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s – some would argue not since the end of the Second World War. At time of writing, the conflict is still barely two weeks old, but has already produced an unfolding humanitarian catastrophe, and a refugee crisis of massive proportions. But over the medium and longer term, together with the international sanctions that have swiftly followed, it also has the power to deliver an economic shock to commodities markets in particular and the world economy in general that may be as bad if not worse than the crash of 2008-9.
The ammonia market, already seeing record pricing in the wake of the winter’s gas price squeeze, is braced for even higher pricing in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The impact upon gas prices has been most marked, with rates of over $65/MMBtu seen in European forward pricing as the threat of a cessation of Russian gas exports loomed. This will undoubtedly lead to widespread idling of ammonia capacity in Europe.
Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media
The COP-26 summit in Glasgow last year signed into force new rules on carbon emissions trading which may gradually start to see carbon pricing spread worldwide, with knock-on effects on emissions intensive industries like ammonia and methanol.
Argus Media’s Alistair Wallace assesses how exposed fertilizer and fertilizer raw material markets are to the conflict in Ukraine.
Debora Simoes, Bruno Fardim , and Cleber Vieira of Agroconsult report on what’s driving the Brazilian fertilizer market currently and look at prospects for the coming year.
Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media
Meena Chauhan, Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Research, Argus Media, assesses price trends and the market outlook for sulphur.
The extensive sweep of financial sanctions against Russia in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, coupled with Russia’s position as the leading exporter of numerous commodities means that the impact of the 2022 price shock may be worse than 2008.