Global sulphur prices are expected to continue rising in certain regions but at a reduced rate of increase. Recent higher spot prices in the Middle East are likely to carry over to other markets. Sulphur affordability in key markets such as China remains good, reinforced by recent increases in phosphate prices.
Ammonia prices could remain stable for the duration of October, with any further increases likely to be capped by a lack of demand. The outlook for November is more positive for buyers, with prices set to ease off once turnarounds at key export hubs are concluded.
Market snapshot, 17th October 2024 Urea : Prices firmed in a thin market in mid-October. Middle East values shot up $20/t on expectations that Indian Potash Limited (IPL) would announce another tender to secure tonnes for India in December. If correct, this will follow hot on the heels of the latest Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) purchase tender for 0.56 million tonnes of urea. Sohar International Urea & Chemical Industries (SIUCI) sold a November cargo at $390/t f.o.b. with further trader interest reported at $385/t f.o.b. This demand was probably generated by traders positioning themselves for IPL’s expected tender, given that other markets generally remained quiet.
Significant changes to the level and location of sulphur inventory over the last two years have caused swings in short-term supply availability. Inventory plays a necessary role in balancing the sulphur market but exactly when, where, how, and why inventory enters the market can trigger a diverse range of price responses. In this insight article, CRU’s Peter Harrisson looks at how inventory change influences sulphur availability and pricing.
The prospect of a drastic expansion in potassium sulphate production has been linked to a plethora of projects in Australia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. These have sought to take advantage of market tightness and high price premiums. Yet investor interest in supposedly promising projects has waned over the last few years. In this insight article, CRU’s Alexander Chreky explains the reasons behind the high project failure rate, as well as highlighting some limited successes.
Market snapshot, 15th August 2024 Urea: A stand-off between buyers and sellers has left prices fairly flat in recent weeks with little liquidity. India's latest import tender was, however, finally confirmed for 29th August closing. The tender’s long shipment window allows NFL to secure tonnages through to end-October and took the market by surprise. This is a bearish signal that should increase dramatically the volume offered to NFL. The tender could exclude volumes from China with supply instead focused on the Middle East and Russia.
The International Fertilizer Association’s annual Global Markets Conference is an in-depth event for those tracking the market. This year’s two-day gathering in London in July lived up to its billing as a meeting of curious minds (Fertilizer International 521, p4).
In China, domestic prices are expected to come under significant downward pressure, with seaborne indications already following suit, with buyers said to have rejected offers around the $375/t c.fr mark.
Ammonia benchmarks west of Suez remain supported by limited availability at key regional export hubs amid increased potential for cargoes to arrive from the East, where availability is far healthier, and prices appear under pressure. The disparity in prices was illustrated towards the end of August, when Nutrien sold 25,000 tonnes to multiple buyers in NW Europe for 1H September delivery at $550-555/t c.fr. When netted back to Trinidad, the price marks a sizeable premium on the $375/t f.o.b. last achieved by Nutrien back in late June, although given that last business in Algeria was fixed at $520/t f.o.b., it appears there is room for delivered sales into Europe to move up further. Regional availability is still limited, with extreme weather conditions in the US Gulf and North Africa potentially impacting supply further over the coming weeks.
This year will be the 40th Sulphur – now Sulphur + Sulphuric Acid – Conference to be held. From its beginnings in Canada to this year’s meeting at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Barcelona, much has changed, but its mission – to be an essential annual forum for the global sulphur and acid community – remains the same.