Significant changes to the level and location of sulphur inventory over the last two years have caused swings in short-term supply availability. Inventory plays a necessary role in balancing the sulphur market but exactly when, where, how, and why inventory enters the market can trigger a diverse range of price responses. In this insight article, CRU’s Peter Harrisson looks at how inventory change influences sulphur availability and pricing.
The prospect of a drastic expansion in potassium sulphate production has been linked to a plethora of projects in Australia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. These have sought to take advantage of market tightness and high price premiums. Yet investor interest in supposedly promising projects has waned over the last few years. In this insight article, CRU’s Alexander Chreky explains the reasons behind the high project failure rate, as well as highlighting some limited successes.
Market snapshot, 15th August 2024 Urea: A stand-off between buyers and sellers has left prices fairly flat in recent weeks with little liquidity. India's latest import tender was, however, finally confirmed for 29th August closing. The tender’s long shipment window allows NFL to secure tonnages through to end-October and took the market by surprise. This is a bearish signal that should increase dramatically the volume offered to NFL. The tender could exclude volumes from China with supply instead focused on the Middle East and Russia.
The International Fertilizer Association’s annual Global Markets Conference is an in-depth event for those tracking the market. This year’s two-day gathering in London in July lived up to its billing as a meeting of curious minds (Fertilizer International 521, p4).
In China, domestic prices are expected to come under significant downward pressure, with seaborne indications already following suit, with buyers said to have rejected offers around the $375/t c.fr mark.
Ammonia benchmarks west of Suez remain supported by limited availability at key regional export hubs amid increased potential for cargoes to arrive from the East, where availability is far healthier, and prices appear under pressure. The disparity in prices was illustrated towards the end of August, when Nutrien sold 25,000 tonnes to multiple buyers in NW Europe for 1H September delivery at $550-555/t c.fr. When netted back to Trinidad, the price marks a sizeable premium on the $375/t f.o.b. last achieved by Nutrien back in late June, although given that last business in Algeria was fixed at $520/t f.o.b., it appears there is room for delivered sales into Europe to move up further. Regional availability is still limited, with extreme weather conditions in the US Gulf and North Africa potentially impacting supply further over the coming weeks.
This year will be the 40th Sulphur – now Sulphur + Sulphuric Acid – Conference to be held. From its beginnings in Canada to this year’s meeting at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Barcelona, much has changed, but its mission – to be an essential annual forum for the global sulphur and acid community – remains the same.
In the last two years there have been significant changes to the level and location of sulphur inventory, which has caused swings in short-term supply availability. Inventory plays a necessary role in balancing the sulphur market but exactly when, where, how, and why inventory enters the market can trigger a diverse range of price responses. In this insight article, CRU’s Peter Harrisson looks at how inventory change influences sulphur availability and pricing.
At the end of August, the Qatar Chemical and Petrochemical Marketing and Distribution Company (Muntajat) tendered for 35,000 tonnes of sulphur for September loading from Ras Laffan, with offer prices reported at or around $130s/t f.o.b., according to market sources. Bids were received at multiple levels, with market participants initially anticipating awards around the mid-$120s/t f.o.b. The tender result was higher than market expectations and would equate to delivered prices to key Asian markets at $150-155/t c.fr. But prices in China and Indonesia remained lower this week at around $140-145/t c.fr, with India at $145-150/t c.fr. Prices have increased steeply since Muntajat’s 25 June session, which was indicated awarded in the mid-$80s/t f.o.b.. and Muntajat posted its Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) for September at $125/t f.o.b., up $19/t from $106/t f.o.b. in August. This represents the highest QSP since March 2023 at $133/t f.o.b., and reflects delivered levels to China nearing $150/t c.fr at current freight rates. Tight supply and strong downstream demand have pushed tender prices higher. Muntajat tenders were previously awarded at $92/t f.o.b. in April, up from $88/t in March and the low $80s/t f.o.b. in February.
Refinery sour water strippers are an often overlooked resource of low GWP ammonia. Martin A. Taylor and Charles L. Kimtantas of Bechtel Energy Technologies and Solutions, Inc. (BETS) show the results of a study on reusing an existing SWS as one of the major systems in a SWSPlus unit for the recovery of ammonia for sale. Relative cost factors will compare a complete SWSPlus unit versus reusing an existing SWS.