Volatility in sulphur prices has been reduced in the past year following the large price spike and subsequent drop in the summer of 2022. This price volatility has been due to various disrupted seasonal trends from the global pandemic, uneven recovery, geopolitical shifts and demand destruction for fertilizers.
Market Intelligence Price Indications Table 1: Recent sulphur prices, major markets
The merchant market for sulphuric acid is only a small slice of overall global acid demand, dominated by smelter acid producers. Increasing replacement of acid imports by dedicated sulphur burning acid plants by end use consumers is reducing the scope for merchant sales and could lead to overcapacity in the near term.
A softer trend in DAP prices, linked to lower operating rates in China and declining demand, is contributing to falling sulphur prices.
Market Insight courtesy of Argus Media
Ammonia prices have now dropped by about 50% from their highs a year ago. Gas prices have fallen, particularly in Europe, and peak fertilizer application season is over in Europe and North America, leading to slackening demand., leading to slackening demand.
Prior to the covid pandemic, sub-Saharan Africa had been the fastest growing market for new fertilizer demand. However, the combination of pandemic related disruption, followed by the dislocations caused by the war in Ukraine, have pushed up prices and led to falling demand across the continent.
New supply is weighing on the market. In addition to increased exports in the second half of the year from upgrades and new refining projects from the Middle East, crushed lump sulphur is also again entering the market in higher quantities from both the FSU and the Middle East, and displacing granular product in some markets, notably Morocco and China.
Maria Mosquera, Editor of the Argus Sulphur Report and Liliana Minton, Editor of the Argus Sulphuric Acid Report at Argus Media assess price trends and the market outlook for sulphur and sulphuric acid.
All is not well with the Chinese economy. Growth has slowed to a fraction of what it was, only 0.8% in 2Q 2023, and has not bounced back as expected as covid lockdowns were eased. Exports and imports are both falling, debt has reached 300% of GDP, youth unemployment is running at 20%, and the property market is collapsing, with huge property developers like Evergrande and Country Garden only avoiding bankruptcy via government arranged loan restructurings. Consumer prices have fallen year on year, raising the spectre of deflation, and productivity growth has fallen from 4.5% year on year in 2006-7 to around 0.8% today. The yuan is trading at a 16-year low against the dollar.