Trading in a time of seismic supply shocks
Ilya Motorygin of GG Trading says fertilizer trading is performing an essential function currently – in a market disrupted by supply earthquakes.
Ilya Motorygin of GG Trading says fertilizer trading is performing an essential function currently – in a market disrupted by supply earthquakes.
Stephen B Harrison of sbh4 consulting outlines the options for decarbonising diammonium phosphate (DAP).
Sulphur production continues to expand in the Middle East and East and South Asia both from new refineries and major sour gas projects.
Policy decisions and geopolitical shocks are now the dominant drivers of sulphur and phosphate fertilizer markets, overriding more traditional seasonal fundamentals. The conflict in the Middle East, including the escalation around Iran, has tightened sulphur availability and lifted costs sharply, while China’s export restrictions continue to restrict global phosphate supply.
Multiple drone strikes have hit the industrial city of Cherepovets in Russia's Vologda Oblast region, according to Russian news agency TASS. The area contains PhosAgro's largest phosphate fertilizer production site. Cherepovets has a production capacity of around 700,000 t/a NPK and around 814,000 t/year DAP/MAP, according to CRU data, making it the largest phosphate fertilizer production site across Europe and the CIS. The site also contains several sulphuric acid plants with a combined capacity of 4.5 million t/a, making it Russia's largest production hub for the acid. This entire volume is consumed domestically.
Canada-based Ivanhoe Mines stands to benefit from any sulphuric acid shortage caused by prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz now that the company is running a copper smelter, according Co-Chairman Robert Friedland. The 500,000 t/a direct-to-blister smelter at company-operated Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo produced its first anodes at the turn of the year.
Several battery material nickel miners in Indonesia have reportedly trimmed output by at least 10% due to a shortage of and higher prices for sulphur caused by supply disruptions arising from war in the Middle East. Sulphuric acid is used to process nickel ore into mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), a feedstock used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries.
Morocco's OCP is bringing forward its maintenance schedule and expects a reduction of up to 30% in output for the second quarter of 2026, the company said 2 April, with some plants beginning maintenance next week.
Zimbabwe’s sole domestic AN producer, Sable Chemical Industries Limited, is set to resume production in May following a capital injection from the Mutapa Investment Fund, according to local news platform The Herald on 24 March. The Kwekwe-based facility has been closed for approximately three years, with the government having launched a five-year roadmap aimed at reducing fertilizer imports.
India’s urea industry was running at approximately half capacity after force majeure declarations disrupted LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating Middle East tensions, according to local press reports. Petronet LNG Ltd, which operates India’s largest liquefied natural gas receiving terminal, declared force majeure after upstream suppliers cited their inability to deliver contracted volumes amid disruptions to cargoes transiting the Strait. The move triggered supply curtailments by state-owned gas distributors GAIL (India) Ltd, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), which supply gas under RasGas contracts to fertiliser units across the country.