P r esident Trump’s flurry of activity in his first month of office has not only upended the global political order that has existed, more or less, since the US rearranged it to its satisfaction in 1945, but has also had a seismic impact on world trade. How the various strands of US policy will play out remains highly uncertain, but some clear trends are beginning to emerge.
Tight supply limits availability as China maintains export restrictions.
Th e past few weeks have seen sulphur prices spiking after a steady rise since 3Q 2024. At time of writing, delivered prices to a variety of locations were around $280/t c.fr, their highest level since mid-2022 when the price of commodities of all kinds jumped in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions. Steady buying from Indonesia and China, the two largest importers of sulphur, appears to have supported the market, in China’s case mainly for phosphate production as well as a variety of industrial processes, and in Indonesia’s case to feed the high pressure acid leach (HPAL) plants that are producing nickel for the battery and stainless steel industries. Although Chinese buying has dropped off slightly since Lunar New Year, and demand has also slackened in India, Indonesia’s appetite continues unabated, having tripled its nickel production since the start of the decade to become the world’s largest producer, representing 60% of global supply in 2024.
Rapidly increasing lithium production is projected to require several million t/a of sulphuric acid in the next few years, with China, the USA and Australia the main consumers.
The European Commission is proposing to place tariffs on EU fertilizer imports from Russia and Belarus.
As a tumultuous 2024 draws to a close, CRU’s fertilizer team to make a few predictions for the year ahead.