Nitrogen+Syngas 391 Sep-Oct 2024
30 September 2024
A sea change?
“Maersk commented that it was ‘hedging its bets’ on future fuel technology…”
In our May/June issue I discussed the race to be the next major green shipping fuel, in which methanol and ammonia both remain significant contenders, but which methanol appeared to be pulling ahead in. But more recently, a few stories from the past few weeks have left me not quite as sure as I was about that. Firstly, there’s the news in our Syngas News section this issue that the FlagshipONE green methanol project in Sweden is being delayed and possibly abandoned, because demand for green methanol for shipping has not actually materialised as fast as was anticipated.
Secondly, Maersk, who have been one of green methanol’s greatest evangelists, and who have ordered 18 very large container ships (VLCCs) capable of running on methanol as a fuel, have now ordered another 50-60 ships… which will run on LNG. The fleet renewal plan will commission 800,000 TEU of vessel capacity, with deliveries expected between 2026 and 2030. In the press release accompanying the announcement, Maersk commented that it was “hedging its bets” on future fuel technology. It did still say that “green methanol is likely to become the most competitive and scalable pathway to decarbonisation in the short term”, but Maersk also foresees “a multi-fuel future for the industry which includes liquified bio-methane.” It was about that time that people started noticing that the methanol vessels Maersk has ordered are dual fuel capable, and can also run on conventional shipping fuels. Indeed, as per the FlagshipONE announcement, many presumably are.
In May I also noted that orders for ammonia powered ships seem to be picking up, and a trawl of recent announcements noted that Japanese classification society ClassNK has awarded what it claims is the world’s first accreditation for machinery room safety for ammonia to the ammonia-fuelled medium gas carrier currently under development by a consortium that includes NYK, Nihon Shipyard, Japan Engine Corporation, and IHI Power Systems. The 40,000 m3 vessel is scheduled for delivery in November 2026. Elsewhere, Wärtsilä has signed a contract with Norwegian shipowner Eidesvik to supply the equipment for the conversion of an offshore platform supply vessel (PSV) to operate with ammonia fuel. The vessel, ‘Viking Energy’, which is on contract to energy major Equinor, is scheduled for conversion in early 2026 and is expected to start operating on ammonia in the first half of 2026, becoming the world’s first ammonia-fuelled in-service ship. And Swiss shipping company Gearbulk has ordered two additional ammonia/methanol conversion ready 82,300 dwt ships in China. The units will be sister vessels to four Pulpmax open hatch vessels ordered earlier this year, and will be built at the same shipyard, CSSC Huangpu Wenchong Longxue in Guangzhou, China, with delivery between October 2028 and January 2029. Gearbulk’s partner company Grieg Maritime Group has already ordered four ammonia-ready vessels to its fleet, to be completed in 2026.
Personally, I still see methanol as a much easier fuel to handle than ammonia, or indeed LNG, and a more likely candidate, even if only, as Maersk puts it, “in the short term”. But with the potential of tens of million tonnes per year of demand at stake, the future is still looking very uncertain for all of the candidate fuels, and hence the plants being developed predicated on that demand.
